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Lehman Brothers analysts said in a research report that due to the slowdown in oil consumption in the United States, Europe, and Japan that offset the impact of the surge in demand in developing countries, the balance of world oil demand has been significantly reduced. Deteriorating demand conditions have made analysts more convinced that the drop in oil prices is approaching a process that changes from quantity to quality.
The Bank lowered its forecast for oil demand in 2008 to an average of 86.3 million barrels per day on the 23rd, an increase of 790,000 barrels over 2007. The bank estimated in December last year that daily oil demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels.
Lehman Brothers stated that the increasingly widespread awareness of energy conservation and weak economic growth will likely cause it to further reduce its expectations.
At the same time, as many emerging economies governments begin to lift fuel subsidies due to high costs, the demand growth of emerging economies may also slow down.
Lehman Brothers also stated that since the state-owned oil refining companies still need to keep their prices unchanged while their costs are rising, the Chinese and Indian governments may need to increase fuel prices to support state-owned oil refiners, which will in turn affect demand. Although China’s oil demand will be supported in the short term, China’s oil demand may slow down in 2009 as economic growth slows down, energy efficiency increases, and refined oil price increases will further curb oil demand. The bank expects China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to be 8% in 2009, so it is expected that China's daily oil demand will drop to 350,000 barrels by then.
Lehman Brothers stated that looking into the future, the global oil demand situation may have two completely different situations. On the one hand, the demand of the OECD may shrink further. On the other hand, the demand growth of non-OECD countries is strong, but the former may offset Most of the influence.
The bank expects crude oil inventories will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in the second half of 2008.
Lehman Brothers said on the 23rd that the sudden drop in demand has inhibited consumption activity in industrial countries, and crude oil prices may therefore further decline.