Macro-policy “fine-tuning” at the end of the year

The “butterfly effect” at the macroeconomic level is being fermented in the Chinese auto market at the end of the year.

Over the past half-month, a series of macro-level fine-tuning signals and actions quickly brought warm air to the auto market at the end of the year.

Although the general trend of low-speed growth of the auto market has been determined this year, with the recent changes in macroeconomic environment such as the loosening of SME credit, the auto market, especially the commercial vehicle market, is ushering in a rare spring breeze and accumulating energy for the next year’s renewed growth momentum. .

From the "policy market" that lasted for two years, the auto industry seems a bit weak. This year's negative growth in the commercial vehicle market is a foregone conclusion. Facts seem to be confirming that a single consumer stimulus has caused the auto market to deviate from the track of sustained and steady growth, causing severe volatility.

From the recent Wenzhou Qianmo to trigger the cooling of luxury cars, to the thawing of the thawing of SME credits, the automobile industry needs to calmly expect the spring breeze during the changes in the overall economic environment.

Rescue of SMEs to become the focus of the auto market Blood transfusion to save SMEs has become a major economic hotspot in the near future.

From October 24 to 25, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out during the investigation in Tianjin that it is necessary to grasp the strength, pace, and priorities of macroeconomic policies, conduct pre-adjustment and fine-tuning in a timely and appropriate manner, maintain a reasonable increase in the total amount of money and credit, optimize the financing structure, and improve finance. Service Level.

At the end of last month, the executive meeting of the State Council formally proposed: Maintaining a reasonable increase in total money and credit, optimizing the financing structure, and improving the level of financial services; credit policies should be better integrated with industrial policies, so as to ensure that there is pressure. To ensure that the state focuses on the funding needs for projects under construction and for continued construction, to prevent the emergence of “half-lady” projects, and to give priority to supporting the real economy, especially SMEs that are in line with industrial policies.

At the same time, the State Council has also decided to deepen the pilot reform of the value-added tax system. Now Shanghai's transportation industry and some modern service industries have started pilot projects. When conditions are ripe, some industries can be selected to pilot projects nationwide. On the basis of the current VAT rate of 17% and the low tax rate of 13%, there are two new low rates of 11% and 6%.

The effect of the decree of the State Council seems immediate.

The day before yesterday, the China Securities Journal reported that as of October 27, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank had a new loan scale of approximately RMB 140 billion in October. Sources also pointed out that at the end of the month and five working days, the average daily new loans of the four major banks exceeded RMB 10 billion.

The Nanfang Daily reporter also learned that at present, credit has indeed been relaxed, and investment is mainly directed at policy-supported SMEs. Analysts pointed out that if the average daily loan as of the end of October is calculated as more than 10 billion yuan, the loans of the four major banks in October will exceed 160 billion yuan, and future new loans will increase by 600 billion.

Another example of a positive policy is that according to media reports, Wenzhou allocated 60 billion yuan in loans to support the banking institutions in Wenzhou to increase the scale of financing for difficult companies, prevent systemic risks, and maintain local financial stability. This quickly calmed Wenzhou's money.

Will stimulate the demand for commercial vehicles to strengthen these subtle changes in the macroeconomic environment, the auto market is a rare spring breeze.

"Credit relaxation and support for SMEs will surely have a very good stimulating effect on the future micro-customer market." A person in charge of the Changxing automobile mini-vehicle said to the Nanfang Daily reporter that although the negative growth pattern of the micro-ke market this year has been set, only There can be no major changes in the remaining two months, but the improvement of the macroeconomic environment is expected to have a positive impact on the market next year.

According to its analysis, this year's callback market, on the one hand, is due to the end of the "car to the countryside" stimulus policy, after the previous overdraft consumption will inevitably cause this year's weak demand; and monetary tightening suppressed the dealer's currency, or only to The high cost of getting a loan, or simply not get it; In addition, as the main source of consumption for micro-substances, the scale of investment in the logistics industry, supermarkets, and service industries has been suppressed, and even the closure of the investment has greatly affected the Micro-demand.

The current loosening of the monetary base and the improvement of the environment for the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises are undoubtedly a “timely rain” for the micro-customer market.

Li Bin, general manager of Guangdong Wuling Automobile Sales and Service Co., Ltd. also acknowledged this view. One situation he added is that the deterioration of the European economy has affected the normal development of export-oriented enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, and has affected the demand for commercial vehicles such as micro-customers. With the loosening of monetary resources and the improvement of corporate funds, it will also help the demand for micro-credits next year. However, he believes that pulling will not be very timely or obvious. This year, the total number of micro-customers in Guangdong will have a negative growth of about 10%.

Therefore, regardless of monetary easing, salvation of SMEs, or VAT reform, the significance of the current automobile industry is that the living environment of enterprises has improved, and the next step will be to drive the auto market demand.

Cui Dongshu, an analyst at CUCH, believes that the current changes in the macroeconomic environment will have no significant impact on the overall auto market, but it does have an encouraging effect on the commercial vehicle market segments such as light trucks, heavy trucks, and micro-customers.

However, the negative growth of the commercial vehicle market this year seems to be difficult to reverse, and the spring is still awaiting the improvement of the overall economic environment and the revitalization of overdue consumer demand energy.

According to the release of China Automobile Association, from January to September this year, the total production and sales volume of commercial vehicles decreased by 7.37% and 4.79% respectively. Except for the growth of passenger vehicle models, truck models were all negatively affected under the influence of the national macro-control policies.

The first three quarters of financial reports published by Changan Automobile also showed that mini vehicle sales fell by nearly 25 percentage points year-on-year in the first nine months. Affected by the decline in the sales volume of mini-vehicles, during the reporting period, Chang'an Auto's sales expenses, operating profit, total profit, and net profit attributable to the parent company all decreased significantly year-on-year.

According to analysis by the Rally Secretary-General Rao Da, this year's trucks have severely dragged down the entire automobile market. The sales of heavy trucks exceeded 1 million vehicles last year, resulting in a serious surplus of heavy truck capacity, intensified competition, increased idle-load rates, and reduced freight rates. Many of the small owners who do not have long-term contracts lose more than 60% of their empty trucks. In addition, the high oil prices this year and the declining growth of the national economy are the reasons for the negative growth of the heavy truck market.

At the same time, with the promotion of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, the state will inevitably accelerate the construction of railway freight trunk lines. In addition, the high truck ownership in China will probably cause the trucks to continue to drag on the growth of the auto market. This is one of the factors that will reduce the growth rate of the auto market in the future.

These established circumstances make it difficult for the commercial vehicle market to quickly correct even if the macroeconomic environment improves. On the other hand, the current structural changes in finance are not positive for the entire automobile market. Cui Dongshu pointed out that although the recent Wenzhou “Running Road” incident seems to be helpful for the financing support of small businesses, the total credit amount has not changed much. Therefore, there will be a situation of this shift. The contraction of auto consumption credit is being Increasingly, more and more cities have shown that it is more difficult to bid for personal car purchase consumer loans, and some banks have suspended car loans, which will certainly have an impact on the downturn in the domestic auto market.

Although domestic car consumption is still dominated by full car purchases, in the mid-to-high-end car market, the proportion of loans for car purchases has reached 20%, so the contraction in car consumer credit will have a certain degree of negative impact on the passenger car market.

Mr. Xie, who is engaged in IT business at Tianhe Technology Street in Guangzhou, told the Nanfang Daily reporter that he recently planned to sell the old Regal Wei and buy a mid-high-class car or SUV, but only if he can apply for enough loans from the bank. Will their car life be affected and changed quietly in the ever-changing economic tide?

■ Multiple perspectives Changan Micro-vehicle leader: “Credit relaxation and support for SMEs will certainly have a very good stimulating effect on the future micro-market.”

Li Bin, general manager of Guangdong Wuling Sales Co., Ltd.: The current loosening of the money and the improvement of the environment for the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises are undoubtedly a “timely rain” for the micro market.

Cui Dongshu, an analyst at CUCH, said that the current changes in the macroeconomic environment have indeed played an encouraging role in commercial vehicle submarkets such as light trucks, heavy trucks, and micro-busies.

■Expert viewpoint “The diesel shortage” reflects that the pace of private consumption lags behind the macroeconomic malaise or a sneeze. It will also have a chain reaction in the auto industry and reflect the latter’s market ecology issues. According to Cui Dongshu, an analyst from the Federation of Travel Unions, the recent “diesel shortage” has suddenly shown that private car consumption cannot keep up with the pace of economic development. There are no special environmental factors for diesel shortage this year: the weather is not cold, the economy is softly landing, and the electricity is not limited. The slowdown in investment is the reason for the decrease in the demand for diesel for production investment and transportation. With the rapid growth in the sales of private cars in the first two years, the growth in the number of possessions is fast, which will inevitably lead to tight demand for gasoline this year. "I've always been concerned about whether this year's gasoline supply problems, but it's actually diesel."

Cui Dongshu therefore believes that the balance between gasoline and diesel reflects the balanced relationship between economic development and consumption. That is, our economic construction has developed too much and consumer support is insufficient. Whenever there is a sign of trouble, it will limit consumption, and investment cannot be restricted. “Our investments are all above 20% high growth, while the auto market is almost zero growth. Not only does Beijing’s auto market consumption far outrun GDP, but the whole country can’t win. This is contrary to our adjustment of the economic model that encourages consumption."

He is more worried about the big issue that the continuing shortage of diesel demand will increase in the next 20 years. Gasoline vehicles have outstanding energy-saving and emission-reduction effects, and there are many ways to save gasoline consumption such as electric vehicles, hybrids, and CNG. At the same time, with the adjustment of taxes and fees, it is easy for private car consumers to reduce the mileage and frequency of self-driving trips. However, production, transportation, and national defense safety are rigid demands for diesel fuel, and other alternative energy sources and technologies such as hybrid and electric are more immature. “If the demand for gasoline and diesel oil does not increase in the next 20 years, if the demand for diesel fuel grows faster than expected, our energy security cannot be guaranteed.”