Since the beginning of this year, multiple factors have caused the price of potash at home and abroad to keep rising. From the domestic perspective, recently, the largest domestic potash fertilizer company, Salt Lake Potash raised its ex-factory price by RMB 100/ton, and the domestic price of potassium chloride has reached around RMB 3,000/ton. From an international perspective, the recent landed price of potash fertilizer in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and North America has reached US$520/ton, which has increased by nearly US$100/ton from the beginning of the year, setting a new high for the year. It is widely believed in the industry that multiple factors have contributed to the increase in potash prices at home and abroad. First, the prices of international agricultural products continued to rise. Since October 2010, the prices of corn, soybeans and wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade have risen by nearly 40%, 20% and 10% respectively. Second, international potash stocks continue to decline. Relevant data show that in March 2011, the output of potash fertilizer in North America was approximately 1.188 million tons (reduced amount, the same below), a decrease of 8% from the previous month. Potash stocks in North America fell to 1.79 million tons in March, which is a decrease of 7% from the same period of last year and a decrease of 26% from the average inventory in the past five years. Third, the outcome of the negotiations on imported potash fertilizer has not been determined. It is understood that India has now surpassed China to become the world's largest potash fertilizer importer. China and India have recently been waiting for negotiations on importation of potash contracts. Previously, it was reported that the price of potash fertilizer in India is expected to be more than 10% of the price of China's 400 yuan/ton in the first half of 2011. In the second half of the year, China's potash fertilizer negotiations are about to start, which is expected to be higher than the price of negotiations in India. Fourth, the domestic supply of potash fertilizer has tightened. At present, due to restrictions on shipments, domestic procurement companies for potash fertilizers began to face difficulties in procurement. Large-scale traders and manufacturers reluctantly sold goods, and the supply of goods in the market was tight. In this regard, the industry is expected to further increase potash prices in the second half of this year. Chang Yingzhi, a researcher of China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry Co., said that due to the tight transport situation of domestic potash fertilizers and the serious reluctance to sell potash fertilizers, the supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market has become tight, which has led to an increase in domestic potash fertilizer prices. In the international potash fertilizer market, due to the large market demand and limited potassium fertilizer production, its price has also increased. It is expected that in the second half of this year, under the impetus of tight supply and demand in the market, potash prices at home and abroad will further increase.
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