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Technical Risk Coal liquefaction has two technical routes: direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction. On a global scale, only South Africa's Sasol indirect liquefaction technology is used for large-scale industrial production. The United States, Germany, and Japan all claim to have mature direct liquefaction technologies. However, there are no examples of large-scale industrial production.
The biggest problem facing China's current investment in coal liquefaction and oil production is the lack of experience and technology in demonstration of industrialization of coal liquefaction. A technology must go through such a process as "experiment-semi-industrial experiment-industrial demonstration-large-scale industrialization demonstration-commercial mass production" before it can be promoted. Many risks in this process are difficult to predict. The Shenhua project is at the stage of large-scale industrialization demonstration. Its significance lies in opening up a way for domestic development of this industry.
Resource issues Resource elements mainly include coal resources and water resources. The coal direct liquefaction method requires 3 to 4 tons of coal to produce one ton of oil and 5 to 7 tons of coal to produce one ton of oil by indirect liquefaction. If the production of one ton of oil according to the coal direct liquefaction method requires 4 tons of coal and 50 to 100 years of life for a coal-to-oil plant, the total coal demand for a coal-to-oil plant corresponding to an annual output of 3 million tons of oil is 6 to 1.2 billion tons. Assuming that the recoverable coefficient of coal is calculated at 50%, the proved reserves of supporting coal mines should be no less than 1.2 to 2.4 billion tons. If coal is used for indirect liquefaction, more coal is needed.
The coal-to-oil process requires large amounts of water, and the direct liquefaction of coal requires one ton of oil to consume 8 tons to 9 tons of water. The indirect liquefaction method used by Sasol Company is 1.5 times more than the direct liquefaction method. Most of the coal-producing areas are in the middle and western regions of arid and semi-arid regions. The amount and time of available water need careful examination.
In addition, the impact of rising coal prices on the economic benefits of coal-to-oil projects must also be considered. As the cost of raw coal accounts for more than 80% of the total variable cost, the price of raw coal will have a greater impact on the economic benefits of the project. Research shows that for every 50 yuan/ton increase in coal price, the internal rate of return of the project is reduced by about 1.4% to 1.5%, which is equivalent to a cost increase of about 150 yuan/ton oil (direct liquefaction) or 250 yuan/ton oil (indirect Liquefaction method).
The investment risk coal-to-oil project is a project that requires a large amount of funds. To achieve relatively good returns, at least scale production will reach 1 million tons of oil per year, which will require about 10 billion yuan in investment, and start-up capital will be about 3 billion. Yuan Renminbi.
It should be said that from the national decision-making level to various investors, the ultimate investment in this project is very cautious.
Under the present circumstances, China's "coal-to-oil" industry is a high-risk investment industry. The first “coal oil†project was settled in Shenhua because Shenhua has unparalleled advantages in all aspects of resource allocation, coal mine development, power plant support, oil refining, chemical industry, and transportation, and is also the four major insurance companies. The huge RMB 7.5 billion insurance policy was successfully implemented.
Fluctuations in Oil Prices The competitiveness of a huge investment in coal liquefaction projects depends on the difference between coal prices and crude oil prices. The factors that have a major impact on the economic efficiency of coal liquefaction projects are: first, oil prices; second, investment; third, the operating rate of the plant; and fourth, raw material prices, including coal, water, and electricity. Among them, the biggest impact on coal-to-oil projects is the international crude oil price, while the international crude oil prices are affected by many factors and fluctuate considerably. Therefore, when developing coal-to-oil projects, it is necessary to consider the possible low oil prices in the future.
Preliminary research shows that if the internal rate of return after project tax is 12% as a reference, when the coal price is 150 yuan/ton, the competitiveness of coal-to-oil projects is equivalent to 37 US dollars/barrel; when the coal price is 300 yuan/ At tonne, the competitiveness of coal-to-oil projects is equivalent to US$48/barrel.
The choice of process and solution The biggest advantage of Sasol or Shell technology is mature and reliable, but the disadvantage is that the introduction of high cost, so that the total cost of the project may increase significantly (estimated? 15%); on the contrary, the use of domestic independent research and development technology The disadvantage is that there is a certain risk of engineering amplification. The greater the magnification, the greater the risk. The advantage is that the overall cost of the project can be greatly reduced.
Environmental pressure The enormous environmental pressure faced by the coal-to-oil project is one of the focuses of all parties. According to the data, according to the current direct liquefaction process, for each ton of refined oil produced, approximately 4 tons of raw coal and 8 to 9 tons of water are consumed, and the amount of carbon dioxide emitted is 7 to 10 times that of the petrochemical industry. Unreasonable coal chemical planning It will directly affect the stable development of the local economy and society and protect the ecological environment. Therefore, coal-to-oil projects must undergo a rigorous environmental assessment.
Although China’s coal-to-oil projects are facing good development opportunities, they also face the challenges of huge project investment, mature technology, and water resources and environmental protection.