Consumer demand is still strong In 2006, China's rubber consumption is still strong, mainly determined by the following factors:
The first is the rapid growth of the national economy. The majority view is that at least until 2010, China's economy will be in a period of rapid growth. Not long ago, authoritative departments made predictions on the economic development of China in 2006, and the growth rate of GDP was close to 9%. The rapid growth of the total economy is self-evident for the promotion of rubber consumption in China.
The second is the heavy chemical industry stage of China's industrial development. At present, China's industrialization is still in the period of traditional industrialization. The characteristics of heavy chemical industry are obvious. A large amount of investment, a large amount of infrastructure construction, and a large amount of logistics have determined the continuous expansion of road transport and various motor vehicles, which has stimulated the rapid increase in the consumption of tires and other rubber products.
Third, cars enter large numbers of households. The car is no longer just a means of production, and it becomes an important source of living information. It is expected that the national automobile production in 2005 will reach or approach 6 million vehicles and will continue to grow in 2006. It is estimated that in the next five years, China's auto production will exceed 8 million vehicles, or even more. At the same time, the country’s car ownership and road transport mileage will also increase significantly. Therefore, relevant departments predict that by 2010, the annual demand for various types of tires in China will reach 300 million, an increase of 30% over 2005, which will provide a solid foundation for the robust growth of China's rubber consumption.
Fourth, active export of rubber products. Exports have always been a strong driving force for China's rubber consumption. The direct export volume of Chinese rubber is small, but the indirect export volume achieved through the export of rubber products is very large, accounting for more than one third of the total consumption. At present, the transfer of production capacity of major rubber products companies in the world to China continues. Although trade frictions will have some negative impacts, overall, the demand for inexpensive rubber products from China in the international market will not decrease. According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to September this year, China’s tire export volume increased by 17% over the same period of last year. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's various rubber products will not fall below 10% in 2006 and remain high. The level of growth.
New resources are relatively flat In 2005, China's domestic production of rubber increased slightly, forming a clear contrast with strong consumer demand. It is estimated that the domestic rubber production in 2006 will reach or exceed 2.3 million tons, which is an increase of more than 5% over this year and will continue to grow steadily, of which more than 1.7 million tons of synthetic rubber will be produced.
An important reason for the slow growth of rubber resources in 2006 was that in 2005, the domestic production areas suffered from more serious natural disasters. Production was reduced, and inventory was small, which had a great influence on the off-season supply in the first quarter of 2006.
Unlike the previous period, the stock of natural rubber in the warehouse of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is currently not much, which is nearly 200,000 tons worse than in 2004. In this way, the availability of all domestic rubber resources in 2006, especially the supply capacity of natural rubber, has been significantly reduced.
Through the comparison of the above two aspects, we can see that the market gap is greater than 2004 in terms of comparison of domestic supply and demand. Therefore, the dependence on overseas resources is stronger, and the required import volume is much higher than the 2005 level. It is initially expected that the import volume of various rubbers will be no less than 3 million tons next year, which is an increase of about 20% from this year.
High market price volatility Overall, the rubber market price in 2006 was operating at a relatively high level. Even if there is a large correction in the current price, even if it enters the low price range, it will not last long and will soon rebound. Of course, there are still some negative factors in the Chinese rubber prices in the new year, which will put pressure on the further upward movement of prices.
The first is the uncertainty of the change in import tax rates. It is also controversial whether China's natural rubber import tariffs will be adjusted in the future. But regardless of the final result? At least a downward adjustment of tariffs is a great source of uncertainty. It is also the existence of this uncertainty. Like the sword of Damocles, it is overhanging the price of rubber, making it more likely to increase prices. Have a great deal of worries.
Second, the dollar exchange rate continues to strengthen. After several years of depreciation, the U.S. dollar exchange rate will tend to strengthen in the medium term (it is estimated that it will depreciate in the long run). The first three quarters of this year have shown this trend. If the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar continues to rise in the future, it will inevitably lead to a drop in the price of rubber in the international market, which is denominated in US dollars. At the same time, a stronger US dollar exchange rate will also drive a corresponding appreciation of the renminbi and reduce the cost of importing Chinese rubber.
Third, there is a possibility that there will be a large correction in oil prices. For the judgment of oil prices in the international market in 2006, the current views differ greatly. There is a view that at present, the world's oil has entered a high-risk price, the bubble component is increasing, and in the future, oil prices will dip deeply. If the oil price in the international market really shows a sharp correction, it will inevitably lead to a drop in the price of synthetic rubber and a drag on natural rubber prices.
Thus, unlike in 2005, 2006 is no longer primarily a bullish factor, but rather a combination of bullish factors and bullish factors. As the price changes, these two factors have become the dominant factors affecting market conditions, causing market prices. Tremendous shocks.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Chinese rubber market has been experiencing rapid growth, and this situation will not change significantly in 2006. It is estimated that the consumption of various types of rubber in the year will reach or exceed 5.3 million tons, which is an increase of more than 10% from this year. At the same time, imports will continue to increase, and prices may remain high.