The main reasons for the price change of chemical products in October are as follows:
First, the drop in oil prices in the international market has reduced the cost pressures of chemical companies, especially petrochemical companies, and thus reduced the prices of chemical products. In October, the oil price in the international market fell by a certain margin compared with the previous months, and the prices of chemical products also retraced. At the same time, the trend of declining oil prices in the international market has increased the wait-and-see atmosphere in the chemical product trading market. Middlemen and downstream companies are reluctant to bear the risk of price cuts in chemical products, and the reduction in the trading volume of some chemical products has also led to a drop in their prices.
Second, the long-term high price of chemical products will increase the cost pressures of downstream companies and lead to a slowdown in demand for chemical products. At present, the prices of most petrochemical products in China are at the highest level in the past decade, and this high price level has continued for more than a year. Under the circumstance that the prices of end-use consumer products have risen relatively low, the downstream companies have to bear huge cost pressures. Therefore, downstream companies have been working hard to reduce the consumption of chemicals to reduce costs. Some companies have reduced product quality standards to a minimum, and some have used more resources for recycling in their products.
Third, the increase in the prices of related alternative products has led to the increase in the prices of some chemical products. This year, due to the global reduction in cotton production, the increase in cotton prices has led to a certain increase in the prices of alternative chemical products such as polyester chips. Similarly, due to the reduction in global natural rubber production this year, its price has risen. Therefore, despite the drop in oil prices in October, the price of synthetic rubber still rose by a certain margin.
It is expected that the overall price of chemical products will continue to fall in the coming period, but the decline will not be too great, and the prices of individual chemical products may still rise. The reason is as follows:
First, the macro economy continues to maintain a steady and rapid development trend, providing a good market environment for chemical products. In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic economy continued to develop in the expected direction of macroeconomic control and maintained a steady and relatively rapid growth. The relevant agencies estimated that the annual GDP growth was more than 9%, exports grew by about 28%, and imports increased by 18%. about. Therefore, in the coming period, the chemical product market will still maintain a relatively strong supply and demand situation, and prices will remain high.
Second, prices of oil and other energy and raw materials have been falling steadily, which will cause prices of chemical products to drop by a certain extent. Due to the apparent slowdown in global oil demand, US oil demand has even declined. In the first three quarters of the year, China’s total crude oil and refined oil imports also fell by 0.53% over the same period of last year. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to decline in the coming period. New York WTI crude oil prices may stabilize below $60 a barrel. At the same time, the purchase price of domestic raw materials, fuels, and power has significantly declined since the second half of the year, and the increase in prices of chemical raw materials fell sharply. In September, the increase was 5.0%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year; the production price of production materials The increase also fell to 6.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year. Therefore, the prices of chemical products in the later period will continue to show a steady decline.
Third, prices of individual chemical products may still rise slightly. Since June of this year, domestic automobile production and sales volume has increased significantly, and the growth of sedan production in the first three quarters has reached 17.7%. The demand for rubber from automobile tire production will increase significantly, and this year's reduction in rubber supply is a foregone conclusion, so rubber prices may continue to rise. In addition, if the price of cotton continues to rise, it may also provide strong support for the prices of polyester and other chemical products.
In October, prices of domestic chemical products declined slightly overall, and individual products rose. According to the monitoring of the chemical product market in 36 large and medium-sized cities throughout the country, the average price of low-density polyethylene (film 1F7B) was 11,509 yuan (ton price, the same below), a month-on-month decrease of 0.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%; (Wire drawing 2401) The average price was 10,932 yuan, which was a 1.94% decrease from the previous month and an increase of 1.95% year-on-year. The average price of polyvinyl chloride (suspension) was 7,435 yuan, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 18.3% from the same period of last year. The average price of polyester chips (particles) was 10,987 yuan, up 2.54% month-on-month and down 2.84% year-on-year; the average price of fuel ethanol was 4,666 yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 1.09%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.79%; The average price of (domestic 1#) was 16,003 yuan, up 4.04% month-on-month and up 17.47% year-on-year; the average price of butadiene rubber was 14,934 yuan, up 0.71% month-on-month, and up 7.74% year-on-year; 98%) The average price was 692 yuan, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous month and an increase of 3.98% year-on-year. The average price of soda ash (content ≥ 98.5%) was 1,640 yuan, 0.95% higher than the previous month and 4.49% year-on-year. %; The average price of caustic soda (content 30% to 40%) is 659 yuan Decreased 1.42%, down 0.15 percent.